It’s the final quarter of 2022, but the year isn’t done yet for small businesses, with some significant milestones ahead and a mixed business outlook on the horizon.
From the Federal Budget to the year’s biggest shopping season and growing fears of a global recession, the next couple of months promises to be both a busy and instructive time for small businesses.
Here are five dates to look out for in the countdown to December 31.
25 October – the Federal Budget
The Albanese Government delivered its first budget on 25 October and is already softening the electorate for some difficult decisions.
Treasurer Jim Chalmers gave a pre-budget speech earlier this month saying there would be “difficult decisions for difficult times” amid a worsening global outlook. The budget offered cost of living relief in the form of cheaper childcare and medicines and the Government has promised to increase its investment in skills and training.
1 November and 6 December – Reserve Bank of Australia Board meetings
There are two more Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) Board meetings left this calendar year and, after six consecutive interest rate hikes, there may be more pain to come.
In its last meeting minutes, the RBA warned of more rate rises ahead as it seeks to get inflation down to between two and three per cent.
Inflation currently sits at 6.1 per cent in Q2 and the September quarter Consumer Price Index will be released on 26 October, revealing if rising interest rates have yet curtailed spending.
Globally, the economic situation is similarly gloomy with many countries struggling to contain inflation and grappling with rising costs of living.
The Treasury has downgraded its forecast for global growth by 0.75 per cent this year, one per cent next year and 0.5 per cent in 2024.
Altogether, this means Treasury is expecting global output to be $US2 trillion lower by the end of 2024 than expected which will no doubt affect trading conditions for Aussie small businesses and the broader economy.
Late November – tech and training tax boost for small business
The Morrison Government’s technology and training tax breaks for small business may have been delayed with the election result, but they look set to be all but confirmed by the end of the year.
Under the plan, small businesses will be able to claim a bonus 20 per cent deduction for eligible expenditure on digital technology and external training for employees.
The $1.5 billion Technology Investment Boost and the Skills and Training Boost will cover digital expenditure incurred between 29 March 2022 and 30 June 2023 and education spending to 30 June 2024.
The Government says it hopes to have the legislation before Parliament this year.
25 November – Black Friday sales
Black Friday sales next month may give the best indication yet if interest rates and cost of living hikes have dampened Aussie shopping habits.
Retail sales were up 0.6 per cent in August, the eighth consecutive increase this year, while the most recent online sales event – Afterpay Day in August – coincided with a 7.3 per cent week-on-week growth in online purchases according to Australia Post.
While it’s too early to say if rising interest rates and the impost of household bills will lead to a subdued holiday spending season, Australia Post is predicting such a surge in online shopping that it is recruiting 6000 extra staff to help with seasonal demand.
Small businesses looking to capitalise on the busy holiday season ahead should start planning and take action now to avoid staff shortages and distribution channel disruptions, and by ensuring their digital presence is secure and up-to-date.
While there is no way to firmly predict how economic conditions will evolve over the coming months, it’s clear the stage will be set for small businesses going into 2023.
